Simplicity in Explanation
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we explore the role of simplicity in choosing between competing explanations, and in particular how a preference for simplicity is integrated with information about the probability of particular explanations. In Experiment 1 we establish that all else being equal, people prefer explanations that are simpler in the sense of invoking fewer causes. Experiment 2 finds that people require disproportionate evidence in favor of a complex explanation before they will choose it over a simpler alternative. Experiment 3 suggests that this bias is not driven by assumptions about the probabilistic dependence of causes. Finally, Experiment 4 replicates the basic findings with a more ecologically valid computer task. We also find that participants who prefer a simpler but less probable explanation overestimate the frequency of events that would make the simpler explanation more probable. We conclude by suggesting that people believe simpler explanations are more likely to be true in virtue of being simple.
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تاریخ انتشار 2004